Tonight, Forex pairs opened up with small gaps, following impulses from Friday. Traders become convinced that the monetary policy paths between FED, ECB and BoJ will diverge in the future – despite the assurances that we here in Jackson Hole, that the labor market still requires low interest rates and it will take some time before they start to grow.
This week’s calendar looks pretty calm, but we can find some market-moving readings in it. Today, UK is celebrating its holidays – we have to remember that Great Britain generates approx. 40% of the daily FX volumes. It will take effect on reduced volatility and liquidity – at least theoretically.
Important data from USA will include new home sales (today), durable goods orders, consumer sentiment (Tuesday) and GDP growth (Thursday). Consensus implies good results: an increase in the number of new home sales and positive results on durable goods orders – last readings were revised upward by more than 1.0%. Also the consumer confidence according to the Conference Board (Tuesday) and the Michigan University (Friday) may be important to investors. Especially, that on Friday there are also personal expenses and PCE inflation readings.
Thursday brings important data from eurozone, including German CPI, German Employment Agency report, as well as EMU money supply. It turns out that the Germany price dynamics fell below zero on a monthly basis and the currency reading of CPI y/y – according to economists – will amount to 0.0%. On Friday, also CPI and unemployment rate, but this time from the whole EU.
