The worst scenario is getting really likely – rebound lasts for a month and there is a common belief among investors about the upcoming rally. And usually increases begins only when last bull stops believing in further demand.

Hourly DAX FUTURE chart

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The nearest support can be found near 9880pts., after possible breakout the next one will materialize above 9780pts. The next really important support is vicinity of 9400pts. – here we can find 4-years uptrend line. In such zone bulls are going to defend themselves and play the double bottom formation. If bulls try to counterattack, then the closest resistance will be found at 9970, the next one between 10050-10080pts.

On the daily time frame, DAX looks really poor – for the demand-side of the market. Rebound, which looked like a flag, almost finished. Friday’s candle find a support in broad volume and despite the fact that during futures settlement volume is always higher, the broader picture looks bearish. Maybe if something looks like a dog and barks like a dog it is simply a dog.

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