About 14:30 markets will know the report from the US labor market BLS for September – it will provide information on the non-farm payrolls (NFP), unemployment, earnings and growth rate of participation. They are extremely important for the US dollar, because it very closely followed by the Federal Reserve (FED) and future decisions on interest rate increases are depending on the results.

Institutes forecast

Below we present forecasts of the largest investment banks.

The general market consensus assumes payrolls reading of 175,000, the maintenance of the unemployment rate of 4.9% and the dynamics of the average hourly earnings MoM 0.2%.

  • Bank of America Meriill Lynch – NFP 140,000, unemployment rate 4.9% Earnings MoM 0.2%, earnings  YoY 2.6%
  • Barclays – NFP 185,000, unemployment rate 4.9% Earnings MoM 0.2%, earnings  YoY 2.6%
  • BNPP – NFP 160000
  • Credit Agricole – NFP 175,000, unemployment rate 4.8% Earnings MoM 0.3%, earnings  YoY 2.6%
  • SEB – NFP 160,000, unemployment rate 4.9% Earnings MoM 0.2%, earnings  YoY 2.6%
  • Deutsche Bank – NFP 130,000, unemployment rate 4.9%
  • Nordea – NFP 175,000, unemployment rate 4.9%, earnings  YoY 2.60%
  • Danske – NFP 160,000, unemployment rate 4.9% Earnings MoM 0.3%, earnings  YoY 2.60%
  • Citi – NFP 125-135 thousand

The least positive forecast shows CitiFX, while Barclays counts on the strongest reading. As for the unemployment rate most economists from institutional bank expects to maintain at the level of 4.9%. No change should fall out of the dynamics of earnings MoM (around 0.2%), while in annual terms, should bounce back to the level of 2.6% after declines in August to 2.4%. So given the consensus – but whether it will cover the actual publication?

EURUSD waiting for the NFP

Eurodollar constantly moves in the limited time triangle formation. Although in the morning we saw a test of support 1.11225, now it has been rejected – a daily candle at this moment forms of a pin bar – but by the end of the day its final shape may change many times:

eurusddaily-07-102

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