You can read Ichimoku strategy description here.

WTI crude oil

After the last meeting of OPEC countries, when daily oil production limits were raised, crude oil price fell to an important support area 37.50-33.21. This is most obvious on the monthly chart. It is a (3/8)P line and low from early 2009. We marked December-January period from last 10 years and often they were connected with last phases of corrections/trends. Will this year bring the same scenario?

Seasonality is of course linked to the heating season in the northern hemisphere, particularly in the US. But this year may be a little different. This is about the strong influence of El Nino effect – much depends on this year winter in the USA. What is more in the first quarter of 2016, Iran will throw on the market an additional 1 million barrels of oil per day, when new agreements will come to life. As long as the price does not overcome the Tenkan-sen resistance at 50.00, downtrend is not threatened. Next support near (2/8)P line at 25.00.

Heating oil

It is also good to look at a heating oil chart. Here, of course, the situation is similar and the price found strong support at (0/8P) 125.00. It is an asset that like strong trends what may be seen the best when we switch to Heiken Ashi chart. With this chart we can see clear up- and downtrends or consolidations. During last 18 months there was just one corrective candle (the blue one). Now we wait for another blue candle. It will be a first signal that heating oil downtrend is losing current momentum and slowing down.