From an investor to a scalper is a cycle of analysis in which we take one financial instrument and the analysis includes a detailed look at the value from the monthly/weekly chart to the H1/M15.
CADCHF has moved south since November 2011. For almost two years, and more precisely from the memorable “Black Thursday”, when the drastic and unexpected collapse of the market caused by the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to cut interest rates and to abandon the rigid EUR/CHF exchange rate at 1.20, pair broke significant support 0.7850 market moves in consolidation.
However, it is worth noting that despite that in July the market broke the bearish trend line, further growth is questionable. For few months, the rate has circulated around the upper limit of this consolidation.
If this resistance is permanently broken, we could expect continuation of growth, for which the potential range could be even vicinity of 0.8650.
However, given the supply reaction that has occurred in this area, it is becoming increasingly probable that there will be at least a bearish correction in the near term.
The probable scenario is that the market has not tested from the top (as a support) broken on July 12th downward trend line, which in line with the principle of changing poles should happen.
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Before it happens, we would have to defeat local (blue) support at 0.7730 level first.
Looking at the H1 interval, we note that the pair is currently rejecting the upper limit of the bullish channel lasting from 25th October. From a technical point of view, in the near future we would expect return to declines.
