Macro commentary

Last week’s data was particularly good for US, especially services PMI and Jobless Claims. On the other hand, UK is slowing in terms of industrial and manufacturing production and GDP growth. In Europe Germany is becoming a concern – German industrial production and factory orders came much weaker than expected.

Four central banks had their meetings last week and all four left their monetary policy unchanged. The significant accent came from Mario Draghi, who said that European Central Bank is preparing the ABS purchase program.

Today we have very light calendar focused on housing starts in Canada and BRC retail sales data. Canadian data came positive(200k) as expected after very strong building permits surge in June and then July. And British Retail Consortium will release its sales data 10 days ahead of government’s release. BRC’s data is prior to the govt’s but on the other hand it consists of a narrower test sample – only BRC members.

Today at night Australia will come with NAB business confidence, and HPI q/q. These data may be interpreted in context of an Australian economy slowdown.

Mark_Carney_400This week most important countries have their top tier data:

– UK will publish employment data and BoE’s Inflation Report on Wednesday, followed by Mark Carney’s press conference.

– On Thursday, EMU will come with final CPI. Moreover, Germany and France will publish their GDP growth numbers. Also, ECB is going to release its monthly bulletin about economic activity in EMU.

– FOMC members have started their speeches, interviews and commentaries as a one of many methods of communication with markets. Also, there is bunch of data coming from US this week, that will help to assess if latest pickup in US economy is going to be sustained.

It is worth mentioning, that safe haven rally from recent weeks still hasn’t seen corrective move because of fragile situation and many tensions in global environment.

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