Yesterday’s EMU data showed that economic sentiment declined the most since the beginning of the year questioning very modest outlook for EU economy.
On the other hand, US data came very good. JOLTS keeps record high levels around 4.67M , and federal budget deficit shrank more than expected suggesting increase in tax revenues.
Today’s Chinese data showed softer money supply and fixed income assets investments as well as weaker Retail Sales and industrial production dynamics.
A while ago UK published unemployment data which shows decline in Unemployment Rate to 6.4% from 6.5% previously, but wages growth measured by average index came negative. That would leave Bank of England some space before monetary policy normalization.
Bank of England will release its Quarterly Inflation report soon which will disclose MPC’s view on the amount of slack in economy and labor market. They want to know if there will be any pressure on inflation from wages or investments in near future. Wage growth data shows that it’s rather unlike.
Important data from US comes this afternoon, mainly Retail Sales dynamics, but also Business Inventories which may prove good outlook for nearest future. Retail Sales is still pretty low given robust employment situation and good 2Q GDP figure. We expect more of it.
