Daily Forex Market Preview, 21/06/2017

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney gave a prepared statement yesterday where he said that it was not the right time to raise interest rates. His comments came as the BoE voted to leave interest rates unchanged, but the vote count was split with 5 – 3. The dovish comments pushed the British pound to close weaker on the day.

Price action across the markets was mostly subdued with the lack of any clear economic data to go by. The declining oil prices are also bringing some uncertainty to the markets as the inflation expectations started to fall. This could potentially push the Fed’s hawkish plans into doubt. Gold prices remained largely stable, while the US dollar managed to maintain its gains.

Looking ahead, another slow day for the markets but the RBNZ’s interest rate decision is coming up later in the evening. Economists polled are expecting to see the RBNZ hold the OCR steady at 1.75%.

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1136): EURUSD extended the declines from Monday with price action closing below 1.1200. Further downside could be extended although there seems to be the minor support that is formed at 1.1114. A possible bounce to the upside could result in a formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. In the meantime, the minor resistance at 1.1171 could hold the gains in the near term. In either case, the bias in EURUSD is to the downside as we expect to see declines extending towards the lower support at 1.1018 – 1.0995. Price action is also consolidating within a triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart which could signal an upside move in price.

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.2634): The British pound fell sharply yesterday following the comments from the BoE Governor, Mark Carney. Price action closed just a few pips away from the first target of 1.2600. The current bounce could result in a short-term retracement on price with further declines likely to come by. GBPUSD could be seen testing the initial support at 1.2600 with the potential to extend the losses to 1.2400. On the 4-hour chart, any retracement is likely to be held near the developing resistance level of 1.2688. A reversal here could signal renewed declines in prices.

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USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (111.27): USDJPY hit resistance at 111.61 yesterday and closed with a doji. The current declines could see USDJPY pushing lower in the near term with support likely to form at 110.80 – 110.52. This will mark a retest of this support level which previously acted as resistance. A reversal off this level will signal further continuation towards the current resistance level at 112.00 – 111.70. A breakout above this resistance will only confirm further upside in price. In the near term, watch for price action at the support. A break down below this support could see USDJPY likely to extend the declines to 109.50 – 109.25 support.

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