Today we had middle session of the week before Christmas on the European markets which indicates that situation on the markets should slowly stabilize. It also indicates a limited macroeconomic calendar. Moreover, markets do not react firmly to the tragic events that we could experience within the last few hours in Berlin
Pre-Christmas sessions in the financial markets are characterized usually by limited volatility. This year is quite unique, since Christmas Eve, which in Poland is celebrated in a special way, this time falls on Saturday. Investor activity in last days before Christmas should be negligible, which can sometimes surprise traders. Often with a limited volume entrance of one big player can cause a lot of movement in the markets. This situation was happening on the markets during the Christmas Eve on the Polish zloty, which in recent years in this period was sold out quite clearly.
This year weakness could be revealed a little earlier, which was associated with fear related to the choice of Donald Trump for president, and in particular falling competitiveness of the Polish market with increasing yields in the world’s largest economy, which is undoubted the United States. What’s more recent events, these tragic ,related to terrorist attacks and in Poland, where we are dealing with some kind of political instability did not affect the mood of investors. Gold is relatively stronger in recent days, while on capital market, we note significant growth sessions.
That macroeconomic calendar today is rather poor. GUS (Central Statistical Office) will announce today, economic data from industry, construction, trade and services, although these data do not have much influence on Polish zloty and situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. In the case of global macro-economic calendar today important will be in principle, only data from the US real estate market, which in the case in November showed signs of weakness after a strong October. Today we will know the numbers for November also on existing property.
Late evening, in turn, will again belong to the New Zealand dollar. In case of New Zealand will be announced data on economic growth for the third quarter. New Zealand shows one of the largest economic growth in developed countries, and in this case, the market is expecting economic growth of 0.9% q / q and 3.7% q / q, which is stabilized in terms of quarterly and minimal improvement in annual terms. Data for the third quarter were quite promising, which even placed the question mark over the meaningfulness of interest rate cuts by the RBNZ, so good results should be guaranteed. On the other hand, the data for the fourth quarter may not be quite as good, and we should also mention the very weak data on economic growth in Australia for the third quarter, which may also take its toll on the New Zealand data.
In the morning, we didn’t see high volatility in the currency market. For the euro we have to pay 4.4029 PLN, the dollar: 4.2342PLN, the franc: 4.1183 PLN, while the pound: 5.2300 PLN.
