Even before last week it seemed that Hillary Clinton probably wins race to the White House. Action of FBI proved to be greater return in the campaign than lately “Trump Tapes”. Since last Friday, the Republican candidate gains in most polls and markets begin to react nervously. But not Polish zloty. Those are good news.
Donald Trump clearly benefited from the reopening of the investigation by the FBI against Clinton, on her email correspondence. Though the findings will be taken long after the results of the election, the turmoil has a terrible impact on the ranking of the former first lady. Until recently, she led in most key states, so-called- “Swing States” that will traditionally decide about the outcome of the election. In recent days, this began to change, however. Trump first confirmed his lead in Ohio and Georgia – states that he absolutely must win ,to even dream of the presidency, then took the lead in several polls in key Florida, and yesterday keeps after Clinton in large and important Pennsylvania. It is worth noting that the burden of the campaign moves to the states, which Trump can not lose to those that Clinton needs . This is a bad sign for her.
As a result of this we observe nervous behavior of markets. The S&P500 that was previously resistant to all the bad news (new highs were established even after the referendum in the UK) on October 25 has lost already 3.5%. Similarly behave stock indexes in Europe. Back to favor comes Gold and the Japanese Yen – instruments gaining in times of increasing uncertainty. Such circumstances are unfavorable for the zloty and usually we see crosses with PLN move upward, at least EURPLN. This time it does not happen – the exchange rate stabilized slightly above the level of 4.30, and weakening of the dollar (which would lose in case of Trump winning ) makes USDPLN even go down. It is also quiet on pair CHFPLN. Despite the many voices that Trumps victory could cause a large appreciation of the franc, such a scenario does not seem real to us. The Swiss central bank is trying to defend the franc against the euro (against excessive strengthening), and as you can see, Zloty is stable. If Trump wins short term weakness coupled with higher volatility are very possible, but this effect will not be permanent. Only in a situation, if the Trumps victory will become an excuse (rather than a cause) to the collapse of stock markets, the Zloty would be in trouble.
USD / PLN, the daily chart
In summary, gold should demonstrate a fairly high resistance to the last days of the campaign and the election results in the US. Increased volatility awaits us in other markets. Today at 9:17 dollar costs 3.8942 PLN, 1euro= 4.3217 PLN, franc 3.9967, while the pound 4.8566 PLN