At the beginning of March (07.03) this year the EUR/PLN exchange rate reached 5 PLN for 1 EUR. The last time the exchange rate was this high was 12 years ago, when it amounted to 4.88 PLN/EUR. Such a sudden jump in the exchange rate was a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union and most of the world.

  • PLN strengthens against EUR
  • Head and shoulders formation may indicate further declines
  • FED decision on Wednesday at 19:00

H&S on EUR/PLN chart

EUR/PLN H4 – H&S formation, price is below the neck line

On the chart an inside bar formation was formed, from which the price broke downwards – at the same time MACD oscillator entered the downward phase and confirmed the possibility of further declines.
On the H4 chart we can see that the head and shoulders formation appeared with a clearly marked neck line. The price has overcome the obstacle and is currently below it. Expectations of further interest rate increases by the National Bank of Poland suggest that the PLN will strengthen against the Euro.

Tomorrow at 7 pm we will hear the details of FED’s monetary policy, expected to raise interest rates from 0.25 to 0.50 % per annum. The post-meeting conference will be important – we will find out at what pace the FED plans to reduce the money supply and raise interest rates.

The above analysis is based on the PA+MACD strategy, a detailed description of which you can read HERE . I will talk more about the PA+MACD strategy applied to these currency pairs during the live trading sessions which you can attend from Monday to Friday.
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