My yesterday’s analysis was almost right. I wrote ‘almost’, because there is still couple of pips ahead of EURUSD to get to my target. Unfortunately, yesterday’s choppy price action activated my stop loss but still – bears won. The most important question now is – what next?
Green support zone at 1.0620/30 level is based on couple of local highs from February and few Fibonacci levels. Last week bullish rally created new monthly high at 1,0713 but from the begining of new week, bears have started to skew this movement.
And here we are, testing green support zone, after getting through it few days earlier:
This place is pretty interesting, because as I wrote earlier, few Fibonacci levels occurs right nearby this green zone. For example, 50% of last bullish rally:
And a 38,2 retracement of whole bullish structure:
This should be enough to try opening a long position from here, right? Well it isn’t that simple. We’re currently waiting for a FOMC rates decision which will be announced tomorrow at 7 PM CET. Forecast are clear – ther will be a hike. But analysts are arguing if March hike is already priced in or not.
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In my opinion, this hike is already priced in and when Yellen finally tighten Fed policy US dollar might be a good object to short. The most important thing right now, are Fed FOMC predictions of future monetary policy path. But it is hard to say who’s going to win on EUR/USD before tommorow’s Fed conference. Will it be bears or bulls? Probably during next hours we will witness wide consolidation on EURUSD chart:
