“A glimpse at PLN” is the series of analysis created in cooperation with the InterTrader broker. You can track all these analysis every Tuesday and Thursday on Comparic. The aim is to present the current market situation on the currency pairs connected with the PLN.
At the beginning it is worth noting that during Wednesday’s meeting of Polish Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to keep interest rates unchanged. As a result, the reference interest rate per annum is still 1.50%.
Probably we will not see decision on interest rates before the end of this year – the first should appear only in mid-2017.
For nearly three weeks we can observe a correction in a form of a triangle, whose upper limit is a very important resistance zone coinciding with the level of momentum 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward movement. Last week the market overcame the downward trend line.
Unfortunately the demand did not have enough strength to overcome mentioned supply area and establish a new higher top so in result that move should be treated as a continuation of the correction. From a technical point of view seems more likely in this case bearish breakout but considering the distance to the narrowing of the triangle, in the near future we can expect also increases and retest level 4.3133 area.
Through a strong weakening of the British Pound market defeated this week a very important area of support around the level of 4.9100, which could open the way for further declines, even at levels around 4.8100.
In the near future we can expect bullish correction and retest of level 4.9100 or even 4.9390 coinciding with the momentum of 50% Fibonacci correction of the last downward impulse.
For a long time the market moves in a downward trend regularly testing the trend line. For nearly four weeks market creates formation of a wedge and taking into account that it is a consequence of the strong bearish impulse and the fact that within the same formation downward impulses are also far more dynamic than the growing ones, the more likely it seems to await bearish breakout and continued declines in the vicinity of the level 3.7977 or 3.7748 further.