The new year started off successfully for those with long positions in gold. In the second half of last year it seemed that the growth rally was weakening, and the reasons why gold would still be expensive were gone. The number one reason was the US-China relationship. The trade war seemed to be waning, and the agreement was only waiting for signatures. Now the situation is a little different.

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Preliminary and very fragile agreements may already be at prices, and the rise in gold is fuelled by concerns about the situation in the Middle East, especially after last week’s attack by American forces, in which important soldiers of the Iranian army were killed. Add to this the fact that this year we have elections in the US and there may be considerable uncertainty in the markets about the future of both the Iranian case and the trade war with China, and the gold as a safe haven is again gaining ground for further increases. At present, further resistance is only found at the 2011-12 highs.

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