Yesterday’s session wasn’t too interesting, judging by the number of macroeconomic publications. Today’s should be very different. We already know some important readings from Asian session, some comments of people whose statements are valued by the financial markets as well as dozens of pips of movement on some crosses. Welcome to market overview!
The Asian session began with publication of the latest calculations of the trade balance of New Zealand. Although market expected deepening of the deficit on annual basis, it posted size negatively surprised the market. In January, the trade deficit amounted to 3.47 billion NZD which is significantly above previous forecasts (3.2 billion NZD). The New Zealand dollar lost, and apparently was seen on cross with AUD:
Not only bears on NZD support increases on the AUD/NZD but also good data coming from Australia. The local current account deficit declined in the fourth quarter to 3.9 billion AUD. In addition, a revision of the calculations for the third quarter was made, which has also been recognized by the market as a positive factor.
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Staying in the area of the Far East, also worth mentioning is the first Japanese estimates of industrial production in January. They did not fulfill the expectations of investors and the monthly rate of change was -0.8%
In dovish style also commented Haruhiko Kuroda. The Governor of the Bank of Japan assured today that although the long-term inflation forecasts indicate an increase in the level of inflation in the following years, however, as yet there are no plans for a change in the current, loosing monetary policy of BoJ.
Kuroda echoed the words of Prime Minister Abe, who also spoke positively about the current trend of domestic inflation and also ensured that the BoJ will play an important role in the Japanese economy. Statements of the two men took place few hours after to the public has been given the latest calculation of the index of retail sales . Japanese retail sales in January increased by one percent year on year. This is the third consecutive reading showing growth of this indicator.
What are we waiting for?
There will be few worth watching publications as seen in macroeconomic calendar from Investing.com:
We have seen the first estimates of the French CPI and changes in GDP in the fourth quarter of last year. It seems that the second event of the day will be estimated change of the US Gross Domestic Product. At the same time we will know January trade balance.
Fifteen minutes before 16:00 we should pay attention to the Chicago PMI, and in the evening traders must watch the increasing variability due to scheduled speeches of FOMC members and the president of Donald Trump.