Friday confirms that the macroeconomic calendar in this ending week was rather light. In the markets, however, we observe interesting moves and some of them may suggest a desire to stop the depreciation of US dollar – occurrence of Janet Yellen supported greenback.
What we already know?
So far, the markets got to know data on China’s trade balance for December and the results of export-import. The main indicator slides to the level of 40.8 billion dollars, due to increased cost of imports.
Additionally at 09:00 Spain shared results of consumer inflation for December, which in terms of YoY beat analysts’ expectations and was ranked at 1.6%.
What are we waiting for?
On macroeconomic calendar we need to look for the first time at 14:00 when CSO (GUS) will report results of consumer inflation in Poland. Further data is only from America, where on the first place is producer inflation and retail sales in December:
Declines in the USD slows down. Time for a reversal?
Behind us a real festival of public speech of representatives of the FED. Its culmination was the appearance on the rostrum Janet Yellen – during her speech did not mention monetary policy. During the question and answer session it changed. We learned, among other things, that:
- The Federal Reserve is now focusing on maintaining low unemployment rate
- Another goal is to low and stable inflation around 2%
- This should be achieved later this year
- After reaching the above-mentioned the Fed will engage its forces in improving the state of the labor market and a further rise in inflation
USD/CAD at the end of Thursday’s session definitely regained so over 1.3080 formed a clear pin bar. When price recently touched this level (in December and in October) pair appreciated over 500 pips:
This may be a perfect place to go long. The pair USD/JPY slowed down. 114.00 in connection with the abolition of Fibonacciego for two sessions in a row blocked declines. We lack only a clear signal that the correction is over and we can invest in long position.
Similarly with USD/CHF. Here indeed bears still have eye on confluence of support levels at 1.0052 area. But as long as the price does not fall below this, we assume that this zone is a place of accumulation of bullish orders allowing for clearer rebound in the direction of the last peaks:
