2016-11-02_analiza_oil_wti_d1In the night markets we got to know the results of the industrial PMI for the Chinese economy – at 02:00 results stated the National Statistics Office (NBS), while about 2:45 agency Caixin cooperating closely with IHS Markit. The results were at long-term highs. In addition, at night we saw a further strengthening of the black gold – oil WTI which defeated 50.00 handle.

NBS PMI and industrial Caixin up

Posted at 02:00 government index of industrial price index managers reached the highest result since the mid-2014 level of 51.70 in November and economic activity in that sector presented the best dynamics for many years. Analysts had expected a result of 51.00, which would be slightly worse than October’s readings 51.20.

Forty minutes later, its version of the PMI published Caixin. November reading of 50.90 was better than forecasts of 50.80, but still worse than the results of October at 51.20. Why is so big difference between the results of NBS and Caixin? All through the model adopted for the calculation and the scope of enterprises, where surveys are carried out .

Historical data for PMI in China
Historical data for PMI in China

The credibility of these data, according to many analysts, however, is doubtful. Not since today is known fact that the Chinese government has repeatedly been caught manipulating macroeconomic data.

Crude growing and will grow further?

On November 30 we repeatedly informed about the progress of the meeting of OPEC, which ultimately led to the signing of the agreement. It was agreed that from January 2017, the production will be reduced by 1.2 million barrels per day. Russia also agreed to cut its output by 300,000 bd.

After yesterday’s rally on oil, which sometimes reached 8% of overall merit, Thursday’s trade also began with appreciation and, according to analysts, may in the short term develop. It is worth noting that this is the first agreement between the Member States that have managed to enter since 2008 – it is a clear signal that management with supply on global markets should increase its activity.

OIL.WTI attacks round level 50.00 and is on highest level from month
OIL.WTI attacks round level 50.00 and is on highest level from month

Although in the medium term oil should reach up to 60 dollars per barrel in connection with the decision , it should be noted that movements in these cases are not straightforward. Speculators and investors like to pursue in the meantime their profits.

Thursday’s macro calendar

Click to enlarge source pl.investing.com
Click to enlarge source pl.investing.com

From 09:00 will start pouring  results of the November PMI Industrial for euro zone countries and the entire euro zone.Than  once again we will take a look at the calendar at 14: 30-16: 00 when you get a lot of data from the US and one data from Canada. At the end of the session  New Zealand building permits at 22:45. The whole day is summed up in the calendar below.

Tomorrow’s session will be completely subordinated to the publication of  report from the US labor market and the results of NFP – one of the last indicators, which awaits  Fed before  December  PolMon meeting.

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