The eyes of all investors are directed to the US Department of Labor, which at 14:30 will share data of the condition of the labor market by publishing jobs report, along with an indicator NFP (nonfarm payroll). This will be one of the last signals for the Federal Reserve before the December rate hike.
Previous data and calendar for Friday
So far we know the publication of Australian retail sales which were announced 1:30 our time, which turned out better than expected, but was ranked below the results of the October – reading 0.5% vs. 0.3%, previous 0.6%.
Subsequent publications have already appeared during the European morning and concerned projection of the Swiss GDP for Q3. We saw strong slide from level of 0.6% to 0.0% quarter-on-quarter and from 2.0% to 1.3% year-on-year.
From the information that still await us today, apart PMI construction sector in the UK at 10:30 am, we will focus only and exclusively on the hour 14:30 – that’s when the US NFP report will be given and an independent report will be presented by Canadians.
NFP 175 thousand in November?
As it is clear from the market consensus, NFP should have increased in November by 170,000 jobs (the result of the October 161000) and the unemployment rate to remain at a height of 4.9%. Goldman Sachs, however, has a much more positive outlook and assumes that the change in employment in the non-agricultural sector will reach altitude of 200,000, and the unemployment rate will fall to 4.8%.
Much closer to consensus are projections of Barclays, which counts on increase of 175,000 jobs and no change in the level of unemployment. Overall, the report should have positive note, however, showing high level of demand for labor.
Some analysts also claim that the report of this and next month could be unnaturally subdued by the presidential election in the United States. Election campaigns scattered to the maximum, and support for the vote needed extra hands to work, which has provided short-term employment for more people.