polska-flaga-300x233On the markets we start the last full week of November. The fifteenth trading day of the month in terms of macro-economic calendar looks fairly quiet – but in the afternoon, you will see some important readings of our economy, which may affect the trading of PLN – weakening recently against USD and EUR.


Japanese trade balance down

In the night – just before the 1 o’clock of our time – Japan shared the results of the October trade balance. Very strong declines in imports and exports YoY ultimately resulted in the slide on the total balance to the level of 496 billion yen – analysts had expected an increase to 615 billion. The only good news from the report was the fact that the seasonally adjusted trade balance index for October rose to the level of 470 trillion (also revised the September value up to 360 trillion).

For USD/JPY Monday’s session has been rather flat, after a failed test of level 111.00 – could the bulls finally encountered the barrier, which manages to stop the wild appreciation of this pair? This week will bring answer to this question:

USDJPY Daily
USDJPY Daily

Will data from Poland move the Polish Zloty?

About 14:00 Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) will publish data for October industrial production, retail sales and PPI. In the case of the first two are expected dynamic falls YoY, while the PPI is expected to bounce gently up:

  •   Industrial production – previously 3.2% vs. 0.8%
  •   Retail – previously 4.8% vs. 4.1%
  •   PPI – previously 0.2% vs. 0.4%

If these projections are confirmed (retail here is the most important), EUR/PLN and USD/PLN is likely to grow and we will see weakening of the zloty.

EURPLN for now begins a new week under resistance Pivot Point + 33SMA, which pushes the price effectively on the height of the first support (S1) 4.42130:

USD/PLN similar here ,stronger correction in early European trade and the level of S1 will be tested from the bottom (4.1680) which may give a chance to continue depreciation:

EURPLN H1
EURPLN H1

At the time of publication of the data we should, however, be cautious and abstain from trading.

What else on the calendar – the most important events this week

In addition to the macro data from the country by the Vistula river, November 21 markets will also learn the results of the wholesale MoM for September in Canada -and really for the markets it is the most important reading of Monday’s session. At the end of the day (17:00), the occurrence of M. Draghi’ego from the European Central Bank.

Throughout the week we should follow the following events:

Source Myfxbook
Source Myfxbook

Most encased in terms of data will be November 23 – then we will know also the minutes of the FOMC meeting. November 24 the United States celebrate Thanksgiving. During this period, the market liquidity will be limited, which may increase the trade risk .

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