ADP employment report: Reflecting our forecast for private payrolls in the BLS employment report on Friday, we expect ADP to report an increase of 45k in private payrolls for September (Consensus: 138k).
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ISM non-manufacturing: We forecast a slight increase to 56.2 for the ISM non manufacturing index for September (Consensus: 55.5). Regional business surveys have shown sustained optimism so far during the month. However, there are some downside risks to our forecast. Weaker-than-expected retail sales in August could somewhat dampen non-manufacturer sentiment in September. Moreover, the supply chain and other business disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma could have some negative effect on sentiment during the month. That said, the six-month average of the ISM non-
manufacturing survey has consistently been above 56.0 for the past seven months, highlighting solid domestic demand in recent months. We expect non-manufacturing
businesses to maintain a favorable business outlook in the near term.