About 12:45 Polish market received information that, in accordance with the expectations – Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decided to keep interest rates at record low levels, which means that the main reference rate remains at 1.5%. About 16:00 will start press conference.
2017 without changes in interest rates?
The last rate cut by MPC took place in March 2015, when it was cut by 50 basis points.MPC announced then that this is also the end of the cycle of monetary loosening. Since that time, the lombard rate is therefore 2.5%, the deposit rate – 0.5% and the rediscount rate – 1.75%.
Market should not expect, however, major changes in the beginning year. Even in December, the NBP president, Adam Glapiński, claimed that in 2017 we should not expect beginning of cycle of rate hikes. Most analysts forecast that the move will take place only in the first quarter of 2018.
EUR/PLN stable, USD/PLN up
While the MPC decision did not cause greater reaction on EUR/PLN, the USD/PLN strengthened again. At this point price draws fourth bullish hour candle on the chart. Support was provided by pivot level and from its level began a rebound:
Over R1 PP and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement formed a pin bar. There is a chance that the price goes in the vicinity of Monday’s peaks coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.