Today the long-awaited market event – the British Parliament elections will begin and end. Probably most of us are aware of the huge impact that the outcome of the voting may have on the future of Brexit and the British pound. Recent pre-election polls show that Boris Johnson’s party’s unquestionable lead to date has fallen to nine points, 43% compared to 34% of support for the Labour Party.
Elections in the UK, what do you have to keep in mind?
Depending on the election result, ING points to 4 main scenarios and their impact on the pound. The most optimistic of them assumes an appreciation to the level of GBPUSD 1.35, while the most pessimistic one assumes a decrease to GBPUSD 1.24.
What time does the vote start and what time does it end?
Voting will begin at 0700 GMT and last until 2200 GMT.
When will we know the results?
When the 2200 GMT closing time is reached, the votes will be counted in two stages, but you can usually expect the counting process to end at 0200 GMT. Therefore, the results will start to arrive until the early morning.
Starting with 0300 GMT, the results should appear much faster and we will have a better idea of how things are going. Except for unforeseen and serious complications, we should roughly know the winner/results of the early morning elections.
Watch out for exit polls.
Before we have a confirmed result, we expect markets to start moving in line with what these polls say. This should happen right after the end of the survey and even if the results may be surprising, they should not be underestimated because they affect the current, often temporary, moods.
Early exit polls should be around 00:30-01:30 GMT+1 time.
A big problem for the markets is that exit polls and early results are reported in low liquidity hours – so just be careful and don’t risk too much, which is also encouraged by brokers in their emails to their clients warning them about weekend gaps.
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