There were no important economic releases during the European session, so we will have to wait for the US session before anything significant appears on the economic calendar. The main event today will be the US consumer confidence report, but we will also see Canadian PPI data and hear statements from some Fed officials.

Canadian PPI M/M is expected to be 0.6% vs. 0.8% previously. The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is an important economic indicator used to measure inflation at the wholesale level. The PPI covers a wide range of industries, including manufacturing, mining, agriculture and utilities.

U.S. consumer confidence is expected to fall to 95.9 in May, down from 97.0 in April. The latest report fell well short of expectations, reaching its lowest level since July 2022. Chief economists at The Conference Board stressed that “confidence fell further in April as consumers became less positive about the current labor market and more concerned about future business conditions, access to jobs and income.”

Fed representatives at the microphone

The following speakers from the Fed are scheduled for today:

15:55 GMT+2 – Kashkari from the Fed (hawk – non-voting).
19:05 GMT+2 – Cook from the Fed (dove – voter).
19:05 GMT+2 – Daly of the Fed (neutral – voter).

USDCAD – the downtrend continues, but for how long?

USDCAD H4 – clear downward trend. Currently, the last H4 candle has formed a bearish engulfing formation. At 14:30 PPI data from Canada may decide the direction of the breakout from the formation .

On the USDCAD pair, the downward trend continues. There is a clear sequence of lower peaks and lower lows preserved. Today’s data may confirm continuation of the current trend if another lower low is formed. However, should the data result in an upward movement, the downward trend may be negated.

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The above analysis is based on the PA+MACD strategy, a detailed description of which you can read HERE . I will talk more about the PA+MACD strategy applied to these currency pairs during the live trading sessions, which you can attend from Monday to Friday.
More current analysis on the group : Trade with Dargo





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