Since last month, USDTRY has clearly reduced movement amplitude. So slight changes in the rate we have seen in recent weeks are rather rare on this pair. In the indicated period the price formed a descending triangle from which we can expect a breakout at any moment.
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In the long run, USDTRY is moving in a bearish trend. So breaking the triangle support would be in line with the main trend. However, you can not exclude breaking the upper limit (resistance) of the triangle. The range of the move will be limited to 300-400 pips. On D1 chart, we can see a downward trend line and support that is on minima of June 2017. After breaking the upper limit of the downward channel, the downward trend line is 400 pips from the triangle. On the other hand, after breaking the triangle down, the support is 300 pips from the bottom of the triangle. If price will leave the triangle declining, USDTRY should quickly test the June minima at 3.4800.