Looks like a lot more people may be reading these updates than I thought. Two days ago we spoke about crypto-kitties and then it got so popular it slowed down the Ethereum Network. Yesterday we showed a chart with the total market cap of all stocks in the world, which is nearing $100 Trillion. I subsequently saw that same chart on three separate financial blogs throughout the day.
All kidding aside. I’m flattered by every single reader and really appreciate the outstanding feedback, excellent questions, and especially the helpful information that you all send to me on a regular basis.
Market Overview
Things are heating up in Washington DC and it’s having a direct impact on Wall Street in New York. The tax bill now seems to have a chance of passing by the end of the year. So far the House and the Senate have passed slightly different versions of the bill and they now need to get together to draft a final version that works for everybody.
Yesterday it was announced that special investigator Robert Mueller has slapped a subpoena on Deutsche Bank in order to further investigate Trump’s finances and alleged collusion with Russia to attack the US elections.
Stocks declined in the United States, Asia has followed suit with losses of more than 1.5% in China and Japan. The European markets have just opened now and things are not looking good at all.
Two warnings were issued on the stock markets in the last 24 hours from top-tier financial firms.
The first is from Goldman Sachs who is looking at the run in the stock market and saying that it could soon come to an end.
The second, though I couldn’t find the source of the quote was published in the name of Citi by a well known but sometimes questionable alternative finance site.
Indeed, looking at the VIX volatility index over the long term we can easily confirm. With the exception of a brief spike in August of 2015, the “fear index” has remained subdued for the better part of this decade. The only other period like that that we can see here is the run up to 2007.
This distinct lack of fear should probably set off a few alarm bells in and of itself. Now, that it seems the Trump Tax Rally may be losing steam, we should probably tread cautiously going forward.
The old trader’s saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” may well end up applying to tax reform legislation.
Trade Idea
This one came up in a weekly meeting that we’re holding with all of the best analysts in eToro from around the world. It’s a more low risk opportunity and a bit of a safe play.
Take a look at this chart, showing Natural Gas against the ETF that tracks Natgas UNG.
As you can see, these two markets are very highly correlated as they are on the same underlying asset. However, in the past few months, we can see them drifting apart. Since July the UNG has lost 15% where Natgas has only dropped 3%.
This type of divergence creates a nice opportunity. By buying one and selling the other you will be in a comfortable hedge. This also should impact your risk score nicely as hedges tend to do.
Bitcoin Off the Charts
Last night Bitcoin pushed through the $12,000 barrier for the first time and didn’t look back. At the time of this writing, BTC is testing the next round number of $12,500…
The value of the entire bitcoin blockchain has also busted through a notable landmark with the market cap breezing past $200 Billion. Still only a small fraction of the stock markets, which as we mentioned above is almost $100 Trillion.
The entire cryptomarket has grown in value by 86% over the last 30 days.
The movement is coming from traders excitement that Wall Street will soon be joining the party. With CBOE bitcoin futures coming on Sunday and CME bitcoin futures on the 18th of December all of Wall Street will be able to trade bitcoin by Christmas. In turn, all investors around the world should have easy access to bitcoin-based assets as soon as March.
Those of us who have come to the party are now reaping the benefits. Let’s have an awesome day!!
