forex comparic

A slightly weaker data from the American real estate market and the problems of Chinese authorities to maintain adequate liquidity in the Yuan have made that the dollar has weakened slightly in last several hours. Though it’s not a big correction, this shows that the U.S. currency could be vulnerable in the near term to its weakness.


In a quiet Christmas and New Year period calendar, the most important piece of Wednesday’s session were secondary data from the American real estate market. The index of signed home purchase agreements for November strongly disenchanted expectations of investors, as the MoM fell as much as 2.5%, and the consensus  was  0.5%. In addition, failed to improve the outcome of October, when it reported a rebound about a slight 0.1%. Worse sales are probably due to the increase of lending costs, which exceeds the rebound in wages. In addition, the supply of lower-priced homes is insufficient, further fuelling price increases on the market, and thus fewer consumers are able to afford to buy real estate. Whereas the big appreciation of the dollar in last few weeks, disappointment on the part of even less significant readings can be used as an excuse to take profit by investors from the previously occupied long position, which in turn contributes to the weakening of the currency.

You should also pay attention to the recent reports from China. The potential rapid depreciation of the Yuan is one of the biggest risks for global sentiment at the beginning of 2017. Issues related to the sudden weakening of the Chinese currency have dominated movements on the markets in the first months of this year. Therefore can bother  yesterday nervous quotes of Juan in tandem with the dollar (USDCNY) – after 3 p.m. according to Bloomberg happened a temporary jump of the course above the level of 7.00, which was the highest since May 2008. Though the Chinese central bank immediately denied that there has been such an event, it can be seen that this time January may be nervous. These reports could also somewhat confuse moods  what was visible, even in the form of falls on Wall Street and the withdrawal of the profitability of US bonds, which is one of the factors justifying the present slight dollar weakness.

In the case of gold we are dealing with a certain stabilization of both hand-in-hand with the euro and the US dollar. Polish currency quotations in the following weeks should depend not only on how will shape the global mood, but also from decisions of the credit rating agencies. Already on January 13 its opinion is to publish Fitch and Moody’s. Given the Standard & Poor’s Agency’s publication from December we should expect negative decisions unlikely. After 09:45 for the euro we paid £ 4.4045, £ 4.2137 for a dollar, for pound £ 5.1664, while by Frank 4.1090.

Michal Dabrowski

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