US dollar enters Christmas season in strong style. Against the euro and gold we are still in area of long-term records. Stabilizing of the US currency trading at high levels were conducive to a relatively empty calendar of data publications. Today, however, this will change.
List of publications of US data is impressive, as for pre-Christmas period. Part of it stems precisely from the fact that some publications are deliberately postponed for a period in which markets operate relatively normally. Most reports will be released at 14:30 our time. They are: final report on GDP for the third quarter, inflation PCE (it is PCE and not the CPI is the target for the Fed, the US is unique in this respect), monthly data on expenditure and income of Americans, weekly data on unemployment benefits as well as report on orders of durable goods. It is difficult to identify which of these publications is essential. Normally should be considered that the GDP and inflation, but GDP is already the third estimate in row(which usually does not change much), while the CPI (both measurements are correlated quite strongly) we met a week ago and there were no surprises.
In fact, it will be important what impression will leave the whole package. The impression must be good if dollar is to continue to gain, because expectations are high. The interest rate market priced in almost three increases in next year and it is clear that if it has to move even further, the data must show at least a chance for a fourth raise, and it would require a very strong data. Dollar at this moment can be compared to the world champion, which basically has already won everything , and it is difficult for him to go further, but has a lot to lose each time he competes. The list completes data on property prices (15:00), and the index of leading indicators (16:00), as well as data from Canada, so the session on USDCAD currency pair should be of particular interest.
On the exchange market is quite calmly. Investors are not discouraged by rumours that the European Commission would consider introducing sanctions against Poland. On the zloty (PLN) also had no influence reduction in share prices of European banks, especially in Spain, although it must be admitted that the general stock markets in Europe remain in good spirits. About 9:18 golden dollar costs 4.2238, euro 4.4120 zloty gold franc 4.1205, while the pound 5.2193 zloty.
dr Przemysław Kwiecien
