The U.S. dollar was bullish yesterday lifted by a stronger than expected private payrolls data. According to ADP/Moody’s the private sector, hiring was robust with 253k jobs being added in May, beating estimates of 180k. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI was largely stable, but data showed that wage pressures were building up.
This potentially builds up the possibility of a stronger payrolls data today. The market expectations for a rate hike by the Fed in June is all but confirmed and today’s job numbers are most likely going to the prove the same.
The US Dollar Index snapped a two-day losing streak rising 0.3% on the day to close at 97.135. Technical resistance is seen at 97.50 which needs to be cleared to pave the way for further gains to the upside.
Besides the payrolls data, the UK’s construction PMI is also due for release with data likely to show a weak print. This follows yesterday’s manufacturing PMI which fell from 57.3 in April to 56.7 in May.
EURUSD intraday analysis
EURUSD (1.1216): The EURUSD closed bearish yesterday after testing the previous highs from last week at 1.1254. With prices, still above 1.1200, there is scope for the EURUSD to possibly push higher.
Any near-term gains are likely to see a test back to 1.1236 where resistance could be formed. But failure to breakout above 1.1236 will signal near-term declines towards 1.1100 at the very least. It is quite likely that EURUSD will remain broadly flat into next week’s ECB monetary policy meeting.
GBPUSD intraday analysis
GBPUSD (1.2873): The British pound closed with a doji yesterday after price managed to continue rising following the bounce of 1.2800. We are watching the potential head and shoulders pattern that is likely to form.
A reversal is expected near 1.2937 or even at the current levels which will suggest the possible break down of 1.2800 support. This will give way for the price to test 1.2600. However, most of the declines are likely to come by only next week, unless the markets react strongly to today’s payrolls report.
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XAUUSD intraday analysis
XAUUSD (1261.54): Gold prices continued to slip with price action yesterday currently trading below 1263.00 level of support and resistance. If price pulls back above 1263.00, expect another rally in gold that could see 1274.00 being tested firmly. In the near term, gold prices are likely to remain range bound within 1263 and 1274 with a breakout from this range likely to confirm the near-term continuation in prices. Below 1263, the next main support is at 1250, and above 1274, gold prices could be potentially eyeing the 1300 level.