About 11:00 we met the last release before the festival of macroeconomic US data (start 14:30). It concerned the balance of trade in the euro zone, which severely beat forecasts.


Analysts had expected slippages in December to 22.8 billion euro after 25.9 billion recorded in November. The final result of 28.1 billion turned out to be much better. In the case of Polish trade balance also is in positive territory, reaching 4.7 billion euro in the period from January to December 2016.

dane-europa-857x420

In terms of intraday trading EUR/PLN are heavily jumpy, so lets try to look at the condition of the Polish currency to the euro at the interval of the day. Since the beginning of 2016 years we witnessed two full cycles of declines in the same range, which were accompanied by cycles of increases testing similar area of price (4.50 and sometimes above):

EURPLN Daily
EURPLN Daily

There are many indications that we are now in the third cycle (red rectangles), from which it would follow that the EUR/PLN may subside to 4.21. On the other hand, price supports already tested several times trend line, under which additionally goes horizontal support 4.2610. It is supplemented by measuring Fibonacci conducted after the appreciation trend of 2015.

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