Thanks to FxWatcher we can provide You various types of currency commentaries and recommendations. Today we’d like to show You four scenarios made by TD Securities analytics before todays BoC monetary decision.
TD Securities expects the Bank of Canada to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 0.50% in December. The policy statement should read similar to October as the outlook for growth and inflation remains consistent to that outlined in the October MPR while uncertainty remains unresolved. We look for an overall tone of cautious optimism – said bank’s analytics.
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Bank of Canada may make dovish reference to the move higher in long-term interest rates, though the tone should be more of an observation than a concern. There is risk for a more downbeat assessment of labour market conditions, given the weak composition of gains skewed toward part-time, which has likely contributed to slower wage growth. Given the prevailing level of uncertainty, odds of policy easing at future meetings remain elevated, and we continue to price up to a 40% chance through mid-2017.
