From Investor to Scalper – series of studies created in cooperation with broker BDSwiss, in which we take a financial instrument and the analysis includes a detailed look at the value from the monthly chart and ending with H4/M30.


USDCHF after creating a double top pattern rejecting the 1.8000 level since June 2001 moved to the south. After ten years, declines in August 2011 reached level around 0.7600, where was a strong bullish reaction. Since then we observe slow increases that create a ascending wedge formation.

USDCHF Monthly

Looking on the weekly chart we see that due to the decision of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) of cutting interest rates and abandon a fixed exchange rate of EURCHF equal to 1.20, was a drastic and unexpected collapse of market, which is known as “black Thursday.” It was on Thursday, 15 January 2015 when we observed decreases of more than 2850 pips, as a result of which, eight days we were below the lower limit of the current wedge formation.

USDCHF Weekly

On Daily chart, we see that due to ongoing since the beginning of February growth market reached level around 1.0177 and measuring of 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the earlier declines, where even last week there was a bearish response.

USDCHF Daily

Looking at H4 chart we notice that as a result of the last downward impulse market has already defeated the upward trend line, which yesterday while re-testing rejected it from the bottom (as resistance). From technical point of view, in near future we can expect further declines but we need to keep in mind the scheduled for 18:00 GMT Fed’s decision on interest rates and the subsequent press conference. If the Federal Reserve will raise rates today, we expect a stronger USD which could negate the bearish scenario.

USDCHF H4

On 30-minute chart, we see that market from Friday is moving inside a consolidation, where the lower limit is a significant support below which the price USDCHF was recently March 3 this year.

USDCHF M30

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