Service ForexLive prepared a statement of seasonal individual currency pairs and instruments which move most over November. Starting from 2000, the November was usually the most generous for investors trading on oil, the pound sterling and the US dollar index (DXY).
OIL – November is time of declines
The average value of changes in case of oil in November it’s -2.93%, while the 10-year average shows the average change of -2.97%. Moreover, in the last two years, the black gold lost consecutively -10.60% (2015) and -17.87% (2014).
Pound Sterling is also down
Over the past 15 years, GBP in November increased only 4 times. All the remaining 11 years was a decline – in 2015 reached up to -2.41% for the entire month. Looking at how strong the pressure keeps on quotations of pound, you can bet that this year’s November will be very similar.
The dollar index showing great potential for growth
The last five years for the dollar index (DXY) was really gracious – in November rose six years in a row, a year ago more than 3% when the Fed leaned toward the December rate hikes. Financial markets expect that during today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s a similar situation will take place. Then on DXY again we should see strong growth.
However, you should consider today’s decision of the FOMC in terms of interest rates. The market expects leaving rates at the current level, and a clear indication from the FOMC that the increase will take place at the December meeting. If this actually happens we will know about 19:00. It is certain, however, that tonight will be increased volatility in the EURUSD, so be careful, aware that we should not put excessive faith in technical analysis when we expect such important data.
