Yesterday’s highlight of the day was undoubtedly the speech of British Prime Minister Theresa May. We cited the statement, among other things in the afternoon market review. Today the markets will focus on events from overseas. In the afternoon we will know the latest decision of the Bank of Canada on the level of Canadian interest rates, and in the evening we will closely follow the speech of Fed chairman. What else should we pay attention to during today?
Before we proceed to discuss the upcoming macroeconomic publication it’s worth a moment to lean over the events of the Asian session. It appears that most important events had place in China. About 2:30 was published the latest report on the December price index on the domestic real estate market – growth dynamics weakened slightly from 12.6% to 12.4%. More important, however, is the statement of the Chinese Development and Reform Commission, which announced the reduction of the tax burden on domestic enterprises to stimulate economic growth.
In addition, Reuters published the results of the latest survey of 57 economists. According to the most part of them, the Chinese central bank will not decide on any changes to its current monetary policy at least until the second half of 2018 year. Chinese growth forecasts remain unchanged in spite of everything, and assume 6.5% change in the height of GDP in 2017.
What else awaits us?
We have seen the most recent data on CPI and HICP from our western neighbor. German publications for December did not show any change in the dynamics of growth of inflation and the CPI on an annual basis remains at 1.7%.
The German data will not be the only publications from Europe on this day. Already at 9:30 GMT we will know the latest, a December report from the British labor market. Among the publications we will find report on changes in the level of wages of the average Briton, the change in total employment and unemployment rate. Forecasts for the last indicator assume no change in relation to the last publication.
At 10:00 we will focus instead on data from the euro zone – will be published the December data on changes in level of consumer inflation. An hour later, OPEC will publish its monthly report.
The beginning of the US session also will belong to the CPI. About 14:30 will be published report containing broad change in the level of consumer inflation and base CPI (core CPI).
Half an hour later, at exactly 2:00 should start speech of FOMC member, Robert Kaplan, director of the Dallas Fed.
3:00 This is one of the two highlights of this day. We will know the Bank of Canada decision on the level of Canadian interest rates. Market forecasts do not imply a change in the current monetary policy BoC, however, the report accompanying the decision Monetary could be interesting for market participants who want to know the position of the monetary authorities of Canada on the starting tenure of Donald Trump.
At 4:00 will speak another member of the FOMC, Neel Kashkari, however, likely to be drowned out by starting with quarter of an hour later press conference Governor BoC, Stephen Poloza.
At the end of a long day in the markets will be released beige book (7:00), and punctually at 8:00 should start to occur Janet Yellen. Fed Chairman will address the objectives of monetary policy at a meeting of the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco.
