Number of significant macroeconomic publications from the United States was in the last week extremely poor. Nevertheless, about the dynamics and volatility of the US dollar took care president himself, Donald Trump, whose activity in social media seems to have an increasing influence on the currency. Following this line of thinking in some time it can lead to an extraordinary breakthrough and instead carefully and anxiously wait for the macroeconomic calendar we will follow the profile of Donald Trump on Twitter. Last week was loud about the fact that the new US president criticized the retailer for refusing to sell clothes of his daughter. He considered unjust decision of the American chain of luxury stores Nordstrom to discontinue the sale of the clothes, shoes and accessories signed by his daughter, Ivanka Trump.


Reuters notes that from victory in the presidential election in last November Trump was referring already on Twitter directly to various companies. On Wednesday, the first time it happened, however, that criticized a company business related with his family.

As we read in Forbes: Nordstrom is on the list of companies associated with Trump, which encourages to boycott a Internet campaign Grab Your Wallet. The list includes also the big department stores Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s.

Last week, Nordstrom announced that they end from the new season sales of products branded by Ivanka Trump. The company said that it had decided solely on the basis of sales results of the brand, as part of the regular updating of the list of suppliers. On Wednesday, representatives of the network, which has 350 stores in the US and Canada, did not comment presidents tweet. Also refused to comment Ivanka Trump spokeswoman.

Definitely a greater impact on the US Dollar exchange rate, however, had Thursday’s statement of Donald Trump, who announced “something phenomenal” in the field of taxation, which details is expected to present within the next 2-3 weeks.

Comment came during a conversation with representatives of the major US airlines and is not completely clear whether it concerned taxes in general,or only for this particular industry. One thing is certain – the statement was covered with a very dynamic response in USD selected pairs.

Returning to the subject of significant macroeconomic publications we have to mention that aside from the decisions of India and Mexico, last week we met decisions of three major central banks regarding their monetary policy :

  • Tuesday – RBA (Australia)
  • Wednesday – MPC (Poland)
  • Wednesday – RBNZ (New Zealand)

A detailed description of decisions and actions below together with charts showing influence on markets.

The most important information coming from overseas was without a doubt, the weekly publication of oil stocks in the local market, the results of which I will summarize looking at the USDCAD and Thursday’s data on the pre-declared unemployed. Despite the forecast, an increase of 246 thousand. to 250 thousand. the amount of declared unemployed dropped to 234 thousand.

Let’s get to the charts …


Throughout the week market moved within the previous consolidation. It is worth mentioning that still has not been re-tested the defeated on Feb. 2 level of 0.7600 and located in its area measuring 50% Fibonacci correction but the market very carefully tested earlier top-level 0.7605.


As mentioned already in the preliminary, the most important publication on the Australian Dollar was this week Tuesday’s RBA decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% and the accompanying statement of the decision regarding the present and the future monetary policy of the bank. Both publications did not surprise investors and can say that their shape exactly met earlier assumptions of market.

As reported on Monday, Reuters news agency asked 63 financial analysts about their projections on the decision of the institution. All of them unanimously confirmed that the RBA will not decide to make a move on the rates (the current bank rate is 1.5%). At the same time 16 respondents expect at least one cut in 2017, and 6 counts on a rate hike.

As usual in case of claims of central banks, we have compiled the most important points of the statement, which read here. Commentators believe that the RBA statement belonged to the more hawkish. Bulls can enjoy the fact that the Bank did not record a decline in core inflation that took place in the fourth quarter of last year. RBA statement also confirms the conclusions to which yesterday came analysts UBS.

On Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia also published a quarterly report containing an assessment of the economic situation. The so-called SoMP published 4 times a year (once a quarter) and updates the bank’s forecast regarding the economy. The full text of the statement can be found under the link but the most important headers, which were included in the publication we published here.


On Tuesday, market overcame support level around 1.0712, which on Wednesday rejected re-testing from the bottom (as resistance). It is worth noting that this level precisely coincide with the measuring 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier declines.


On Friday was broken bottom of the next consolidation. Declines reached next support around 1.0610, where appeared bulls response. Week ended in the vicinity of the lower limit lasting from Tuesday to Friday consolidation. Looking at the 4-hour chart we can notice that currently re-tested resistance in the past was a support and it coincides precisely with the measuring 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the entire prior upward movement. It is worth noting that the market defeated this week uptrend line which may indicate a change in bias of the market and potential declines in the near future.


On Monday, ECB President Mario Draghi answered questions from the European Parliament regarding actions of the European Central Bank. As reported earlier, among the most important elements of its occurrence must be taken into account that:

  • Support from the monetary policy is still needed
  • Council of the ECB is ready to expand and extend the QE program
  • There is evidence showing that the risk of deflation has disappeared
  • The ECB wants to strive for a stable inflation rate around 2%
  • Reforms at European level render with economic growth – Mario Draghi, who usually repeats that “structural reforms still being implemented too slowly – monetary policy alone will not solve all the problems of the euro area” suddenly in front of representatives of the EP changed rhetoric.
  • Draghi also refuted the allegations of Donald Trump regarding the manipulation of rate of euro by Germany – the ECB has not intervened in the currency market since 2011 and the decision was made by a consensus of representatives of the G7.


Although lasting from 27 December 2016 increases did not reach the level of 0.7385, last week the market definitively rejected the line of the previous upward trend.


Such dynamic falls was reaction to Wednesday’s decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to maintain the OCR (official cash rates) at the level of 1.75%. Although this decision is covered with market expectations, the general tone of the monetary policy statement and press conference led to stronger declines of New Zealander.

As reported earlier 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected no movement on the rates and their projections were correct. At the same time they think the average rate of OCR over 2017 year will reach to 1.80% – so we should await than one modest increase.

As for the RBNZ monetary policy statement – the full text is available here – the bank reiterates too expensive currency, which hinders the realization of growth targets. Other important headlines of the document and the video of the most important statements of the bank governor, Graeme Wheeler were published recently.

Looking at the 4-hour chart we notice that the market also overcame a significant level of support, which in the past was the first important resistance and after defeat a support. Now once again it became a resistance and in the near future we expect its re-test.



Almost from the beginning of the week we saw dynamic growth, which, however, has come to an end on Tuesday. Since the rejection of the 1.3208 level market moves quietly to the south. Currently, the market is re-testing the local resistance level of around 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the last impulse of declines.


Looking at the H1 chart we see that if the current resistance will be firmly rejected, potential declines could even reach the level of around 1.2980 although the first reaction of demand we expect to have around 1.3050.


As reported on Wednesday, the EIA crude oil inventories increased by 13.83 million barrels, which gives a gain of more than twice the size of the previous one. After increasing by 6.466 million barrels last week, a consensus prior to publication assumed growth, treats this time at a lower level, because about 2,529 million barrels. Ultimately, however, stocks have risen by more than 11 million barrels above forecasts reaching exactly 13.83 million barrels.

Although such a large increase in inventories should have a negative impact on the valuation of the black gold, immediately after the publication we observed dynamic increases on oil, which was followed y the Canadian dollar, which led to declines in the USDCAD.

For the last dynamic downward impulse were responsible, however, Friday’s reports on changes in the level of employment and the current unemployment rate.

According to the latest calculations made by Statistics Canada in January were added 48.3 thousand jobs. Definitely more than expected (and expected decline in employment levels by about 5 thousand) and more than in the previous month, the report pointed to the increase in the number of employees by 46,100.

With such positive readings also decreased the unemployment rate, which in January amounted to 6.8% (previously 6.9%)

Worth knowing…

On Thursday, the two largest Bitcoin stock exchange in China – OKCoin and Huobi – suspended for month payments with immediate effect. This is to prevent attempts of money laundering and making “illegal transactions”. The market reaction was immediate. From the market evaporated between 1.5-2 billion dollars and the exchange rate BTC/USD fell up to extreme point by nearly 15%.


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