Welcome in today’s Daily Macro Commentary. Week starts quite nervously, because of:
- Mario Draghi Thursday’s statement that ECB intends to purchase assets backed securities (ABS).
- Deep ECB interest rates cuts, where all three key rates were lowered by 10bp. Currently, the refi rate is 0.05%, depo -0.2% and the discount rate 0.3%
- Recent surveys from Scotland shows, that the majority of responders opted for the independence of Scotland, which clearly pushed pound sterling down.
- Poor NFP outcome on Fridays – payrolls fall to +142k.
- Charles Plosser speech – FOMC hawk. He said that FED should start the interst rates increases sonner than later.
- Today’s calendar is very quiet. German and Chinese trade balances where the key factor today. Both showed a record high surpluses, sequentially 22.2 billion euros and 49.8 billion dollars in the month of August.
Economic calendar for the current week is also very quite. What will move the market in the next few days? Events that are not strictly considered as macro data:
- Pound down? Scotland referendum planned for September 18 will be probably one of the main topics. On Tuesday, Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, speaks in Liverpool and on Wednesday will put his comments to BoE inflation report. Mentioning Scotland will likely add weight to these speeches.
- USE intervene in Iraq? Over the weekend there was a lots of information that the United States will extend action in Iraq against ISIS. On Wednesday, President Obama will give detail of the action plan.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand is meeting on Wednesday and will decide of future monetary policy. What’s next after the rise of bank interest rate by 1%? Consensus says it is time for a pause.
- Labor data from Australia. Everyone probably swallowed weak July’s employment data already, when the unemployment rate jumped to 6.4%. Now it is time to improve.
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