Future is once again uncertain, as evidenced by the Australian dollar, which fell rapidly this week. Looking for the guilty, you will not find them on the calendar, but rater in the general geopolitical events:
Scots want independence and the British are doing what they can to discourage them. Yesterday, BoE governor Mark Carney said, that monetary union of England and Scotland is not compatible with sovereignty. Earlier, economist Paul Krugman threatened that the Scots cannot cope alone without their own currency and that the inescapable crisis awaits them. Meanwhile, the British government is going to Scotland to persuade the Scots to stay in the union and encourage with privileges that will enlarge the country autonomy. Supporters of independence enjoy that, as they say, no one trust the current London politicians and their initiative should only increase support for the independence camp boomers.
On the other side of Europe we should see a ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian saboteurs, but it was broken by artillery (as reported by the media). Meanwhile, the European Union imposes further sanctions on Russia and it does not remain unnoticed by the markets. VIX increases from 12 to 14 points and AUD losses.
Today, markets await primarily on the further course of events in these cases, but also:
Mark Carney speech in parliament. The main topic is inflation hearing, but questions about Scotland are almost a sure thing,
- Barack Obama speech will be held today. President will present a plan of intervention in Iraq,
- RBNZ will present its decision about further monetary policy and the level of official cash rate (OCR). Credit Agricole and Nomura believe, that the bank has made it clear after the last increase of the OCR to 3.50% that now it is time for a break. According to CA analysts statement, today’s meeting should shed some light on the further interest rates path. However, the next increase will not come before December.