First Friday of the month, so markets await for American Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. Credit Agricole writes, that Wednesday’s ADP  fell less – the estimated rate of employment change – but then the ISM PMI was much better than expected (59.6 vs 57.3 forecast and 58.7 prev). Consensus says that today’s NFP will reach 230k – the same says Credit Agricole – and unemployment rate will fall to 6.1%.

CA believes it will stay at 6.2% level and the labor force will increase – in this case, it will be still a positive result. Along with the report, the wag growth dynamic will be published – which is equally important for the FED (as the NFP). In connection with a good average weekly jobless claims and new vacancies in the labor market (JOLTS) we anticipate, that report may be dollar positive and even better than expected.

  • Non-Farm Payrolls: change in the non-farming sector
  • Forecasts median: 230k
  • July reading: 288K
  • Highest/Lowest forecast: 300k/190k
  • 6-month average: 244k

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