„Searching, Analysing, Trading” is a series of analyses designed for an investment strategy based on Price Action and Elliott Waves. Its step-by-step description can be found in this link. We kindly invite you to follow our today’s review of selected currency pairs and potential opportunities for transactions.
Our analyses are prepared based on Ducascopy’s SWFX Sentiment Index, available here.
EUR/USD
The pair is carrying on with a rebound. It broke through resistance in the area of the 1,1730 level and then reached the supply zone at around 1,1830. The lower limit of the zone was rejected and the pair was sandwiched between those levels. From the wave perspective, we can come up with several scenarios. The first one, is a three up as wave A. Now wave B should be forming and once completed, the price will move ap in wave C. The second, least probable one, assumes that correction abc is completed and declines resume. Based on the third scenario, the current three will add wave five, triggering off an impulse that can be labelled as 1A or C in the case of an irregular correction.
On the Ichimoku chart, we can see that the pair managed to breach the Kijun D1 line. Currently we are observing its retest and in the context of such favourable sentiment as we have now (a very sharp rise in longs and a drop in shorts), it will be possible to look for an entry to trade wave five, or, in the case of a 1212 sequence, to trade wave three of wave three.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD, as is the case with EUR/USD, has been sandwiched between two zones. The previous ascending channel was breached from the bottom and this move may be taking place as part of wave B. Once completed, we will see advances towards the nearest resistance zone in the form of a C wave. The moves up that we have been observing from the bottom, may also be considered as completed abc correction. In this scenario, this is a correction of wave 5 of an impulse down, which may get extended.
On the Ichimoku chart, we can see that the pair managed to breach the Kijun D1 line. The price bounced off it and is heading towards Senkou Span ascending cloud and Tenkan D1 line. Based on the scenario assuming that wave A has been completed and the current declines are wave B, we should see a bounce off those lines, which will allow us, considering the current neutral sentiment, to look for entries to trade wave C.
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JPY/USD
We have an interesting situation on USD/JPY. The pair, after a strong impulse up and completion of a simple correction i.e. wave 2A, made another impulse up. At present we are witnessing its continuation. The moves up in question may be a beginning of a big wave 3. However, if the pair makes a U-turn, we are left with two possible scenarios. The first one, is that 1212 sequence develops, i.e. a correction from the current levels (if any) will be wave ii of wave i of wave 3. According to the second scenario, a simple correction ends as part of wave B and declines take place as wave C.
On the Ichimoku chart we can see that the pair is oscillating between Kijun D1 and Tenkan D1. At night the price broke through above Kijun D1 and if the pair manages to stay above it, there will be a high chance that the moves up will continue. Its retest may give an opportunity to look for a long position, but the current sentiment does not allow such a trade, therefore all we can do now is wait.
Translation: Mirosław Wilk
