One of the most important events of the session was speech of Donald Trump in front of US Congress – the first time officially as president – which took place at 02:00 GMT. Although some observers expected a veritable storm, the successor of Barack Obama unveiled a rather subdued statement.


Australian GDP surprised, the Chinese PMI up

In terms of gross domestic product  Australia has surprised positively with GDP reaching +1.1% q/q and +2.4% y/y which is a strong rebound from the results recorded in Q3.

AUD/USD initially rose after this information, but European morning, pushes it back around Wednesday’s lows – on the D1 chart is created bearish pin bar on resistance at 0.7665:

AUDUSD D1

The situation looks far better on the AUD/NZD – AUD here increased by over 200 pips, and from the beginning of Tuesday’s trading drawn only two black candles. Price actually met with a serious opponent in form of highs from second half of 2016 years. In this zone we will search for sell signals:

AUDNZD D1

About 02:00 we got results of industrial PMI for February of Chinese economy. First values published national statistical office, and a moment later the institute Caixin. Both in one and in the other case, the indicator outperformed January:

Trump gently on immigration, wants strong tax cuts.

During Tuesday’s appearance before Congress, Donald Trump said that he has an open position on the reform of migration, abandoned hard rhetoric about illegal immigrants and introduced a much more balanced tone than the one who accompanied him during his first month in the White House.

Observers have opinion that today’s speech would end the ongoing dispute between the Americans called by presidency of the popular billionaire and re-unite the warring camps of Democrats and Republicans.

On the economic side once again we heard many promises, but lacked specifics on which most analysts were focused. We still do not know where from Trump will take measures to cover his plans of reforms that are likely to greatly deepen the US budget deficit. Below we present the most important headlines of the speech:

  • Major changes in the field of health
  • Deep tax cuts for the middle class and entrepreneurs
  • Public-private initiative worth more than $ 1 billion to repair old roads and bridges
  • Democrats and Republicans should work together to provide a coherent immigration law
  • Plan to build the wall on border between the US and Mexico still valid
  • Obamacare should be replaced by a better private health care – with easier access and lower costs

Due to the lack of concrete solutions market reaction to the occurrence of Trump also was not most phenomenal. According to a CNN poll, 57% of people tracking the speech, felt very positive and 69% were positive about the future of the country.

Wednesday, March 1 – macroeconomic calendar and highlights

In a short preparation for Wednesday’s session, a quick glance at the macro calendar. The beginning of the month will be associated with standard “PMI festival ” of industrial sector. From early morning IHS Markit publishes reports for individual euro area countries, and at 10:00 will be a collective document for the entire Eurozone (10:30 UK):

For more data we will wait to 14:30 and until 16:30. Among them will be the most important decision on interest rates BoC, the US PMI and changes in stocks of crude oil.

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