This week’s economic calendar at first glance does not contain too many important events, but a few are certainly worth noting. This morning saw the release of trade (export-import) data from China. One thing to note today is that things are not going well in China. The trade balance data was already rather weak in the previous month, and today’s -14.5% y/y only worsens the situation which seems to again increase the risk of a recession in European trade.
Stocks on major exchanges are moderately but still falling, while at the same time we are seeing a significant drop in bond yields. Yields on US10Y – 10-year Treasury bonds fell nearly 8 basis points to reach 4.00% again.
There is a noticeable divergence between the usually positively correlated charts of the US10Y and USDJPY. This may signal a strengthening of the yen against the US dollar in the near term.
DAX40 on confluence of supports
During the live session last Tuesday, I analyzed the DAX and predicted declines that could stop at the confluence of supports. I was supported in this belief both by fundamental data indicating very minor sentiment in German companies and the technical formation of the “evening star” , which usually heralds declines. Today the index has reached the mentioned level, and if the DAX beats it, we can expect further southward movement . The possible range is down to 15000.
We can talk about this week’s events and their possible impact on the quotations of currencies and other financial instruments in live sessions:
LIVE EDUCATION SESSIONS
This WEEK (1-5 August 2023 ) I am pleased to invite you to several online sessions. Below is the schedule of meetings:
The above analysis is based on the PA+MACD strategy, a detailed description of which you can read HERE . I will talk more about the PA+MACD strategy applied to these currency pairs during the live trading sessions which you can attend from Monday to Friday.
More current analysis on the group : Trade with Dargo