A bearish “outside” reversal keeps the immediate risk lower for 1.0876 at first, ahead of 1.0826/22. EURUSD endured a roller-coaster session post the ECB meeting. The early bounce found substantial selling interest on the approach to the falling 13-day average at 1.1039, and it sold off aggressively to stage a bearish “outside” reversal.

This followed through with a break below the June spike low at 1.0913, signalling a more sustained phase of weakness to measured range objectives at 1.0876, then 1.0826/22, and eventually back to the lower end of the medium-term range at 1.0605/00.

Resistance moves to 1.0952/63, with 1.1039/46 ideally capping to keep the trend directly lower. Above here can aim at 1.1058/80.

Strategy: Reversed to a short below 1.0910, stop above 1.0963 for 1.0615.


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