Since December 18th, when there were December futures settled, DAX index was moving quite randomly, and the daily candles had small volume. Most investors had work-free term what we could see on the chart.
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Today it is the first day of normal trade and so far it is really bad for the bulls. At night Asian markets decreased quite strong, Chinese SSE COMP fell -6.86% and Japanese NIKKEI -3.06%. DAX started session with 250 pts bearish gap. Good PMI data from Euro area and Germany didn’t helped. Decreases on DAX futures were stopped by 10 330 pts level, but there is still issue about further movement. Another support is on December low at 10 120 pts.
In longer term according to Elliott Wave theory as long as December’s low is not break, DAX can still be in bullish impulse. Currently it would be wave 2 (bearish one) and after that the biggest bullish wave 3. Gains which were happening from September to November were corrected by 61.8% and current moves doesn’t negate mulish scenario.
However if December’s low will be broken, there is a lot of chance that there is second scenario. It assumes that November’s top at 11 400 pts was just a second wave of big bearish ABC pattern. If it is true, decreases can be as deep as 2014 low in 8 300 pts area.
