As I mentioned in yesterday afternoon review of the market, one of the most important publications in the Asian session was Australian report on changes in CPI in the fourth quarter of last year. The data clearly failed market expectations, and the response to the lower dynamic of price changes in the economy brought a predictable result. In today’s review we will return to the topic about China and the reliability of the data published by the Chinese statistical office, as well as a closer look at the events in the British parliament.
Lets start from the most important, which is the publication of macroeconomic in last hours. Shortly before 1:00 at night we met the latest calculation of the Japanese trade balance. In December, Japan’s economy recorded a trade surplus of 641 billion yen. This is the fourth consecutive month during which Tokyo sends out into the world more than it buys. Japanese exports rose by 5.4% compared to the previous year, import, in turn, decreased by 2.6%.
An important point was the publication of Australian CPI. The change in the level of consumer inflation did not meet expectations of the market and ultimately ratio amounted to 1.5% (0.5%) on an annual basis (monthly) against a forecast of 1.6% (0.7%). The result of the publication of the situation was completely opposite to that suggested in yesterday’s review of the market. AUD/USD clearly declined and found temporary support in the region of 0.7530.
China does not cheat
Positive data flow to us from an independent think tank Capital Economics. CE analysts argue that recent positive data on China’s GDP has not been falsified. So far, investors approached quite skeptical to revelations flowing from Beijing after the scandal related to the manipulation of data.
According to CE, Chinese economic growth recorded in December, the ninth month of increases, and their growth rate is currently the fastest in three years. This force shouldn’t be maintained – analysts argue, because last year’s growth was driven by short-term factors.
British MPs are pressing…
…to present a formal government plan of Theresa May on Brexit. The so-called White Paper should contain a comprehensive plan for the British exit from the European Union in such a way that the UK economy will suffer in the least painful way.
We need to make sure that we develop the best possible deal for our country – commented on the BBC’s Emily Thornberry, candidate to chair of Foreign Minister in the government of May.
What is worth our attention ?
The highlight of the morning will be the German Ifo publications. At 10:00 we will know the index of business confidence and the overall Ifo index of our western neighbors. Forecasts speak about delicate improved sentiment for Germany.
The US session readings will be focused mainly on data from oil stocks in the United States. As every week EIA will publish its report, which forecasts currently speak of increase of the inventory of 2.8 million barrels.
The highlight of the day will, however, be scheduled for 17:00 hour speech of Mark Carney. BoE Governor will take part in the conference of the financial G20 in Wiesbaden, Germany.
Publication symbolically ending the day in the markets is scheduled for 22:45 publication of the report CPI in New Zealand. Indicator forecasts a gentle acceleration of the dynamics of price changes in the last quarter of the previous year (0.2% q/q to 0.3% q/q).
