Presidential elections in France have had a clear impact on today’s Asian session opening and European currency exchange rates. The first unofficial data showing Macron’s and Le Pen’s equalized chances and the belief that in the 2nd round of elections on 7th May Macron will win 60/40 over Le Pen has caused a long bullish gap on EURUSD = 170p. In spite of this, and a little unusual shape of the charts – I still bet that the EURGBP pair will lose. Why ?

3 reasons to play short

  • Because EURUSD gaps are usually closed … and if not, as it happened earlier on levels 1.20 and 1.30 it is only 20 -30p lacking , so this time I expect to go back by at least 100-150p which should cause drops on the pair with pound.
  • In addition, we have H&S which has the chance to finally realize.
  • And actually the bottom of former broken triangle is re-tested.
EURGBP-Daily – price broke out from triangle and now is re-testing the lower edge.
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