While the franc or the euro, in terms of the scale of the last correction, went back to places where buyers did not have a major problem with taking the counterattack, in the case of the dollar the sellers technically went a bit. The consequence of this is now a big challenge for those playing to strengthen the dollar against the zloty.
What’s the problem? Well, if we look at the chart above, around 4.00 is a strong resistance area where sellers appeared in the past. I marked the places of these market reactions with red arrows. As you can see, there is a lot of it. The recent wave of zloty strengthening brought USD / PLN below this range, and thus the market fell back again. As for the arguments of buyers in the weekly interval, they have a 38.2% retracement of the entire movement from low 2018 and the fact that the correction from recent weeks is still within the last upward impulse, so that the upward trend visible since 2018 can still be considered as upheld. Add to this the positive market reaction (the shape of the weekly candle).
4.00 challenge for buyers
If you move to the daily chart now, you can see where the problem is. For two weeks, the market has been creating consolidation limited from below by 3.90, while from above by 3.98, which, considering the higher interval, can be extended to 4.00. Therefore, if USD / PLN is to return to the continuation of the upward trend and create another wave within it, the trigger would be successful breaking around 4.00, and preferably closing the week definitely above this level. As long as buyers are unsuccessful, one should keep in mind the scenario of further decline in USD / PLN, with a descent to the base of the last impulse at 3.75 inclusive.