Short term buying opportunity in AUDUSD pair, cautious bulls waits

The AUDUSD pair sharply fell after hitting the major resistance level at 0.81173. From that level, the pair started its bearish rally and found some decent support at 0.67234. Majority of the aggressive traders made a decent profit by executing long orders after the formation of a massive bullish pin bar at the weekly chart. Currently, the bulls are slowly losing its momentum and slowly heading towards the major support level at 0.70159. Any bullish price action confirmation signal near that support level in the daily chart will be an excellent opportunity to execute long orders.

AUDUSD technical chart analysis

Figure: AUDUSD slowly heading towards a critical support level

From the above figure, you can clearly see the bears are trying to take control of this market. Though the overall trend is bearish for this pair, we might see some strong bounce near the critical support level at 0.70159. If the bulls manage to take control of this market from that level, the ultimate bullish target for this pair would be the 38.2% bearish retracement level (0.72616). Unless the bulls clear that resistance level, the overall long term bias will remain bearish. According to the leading analyst of the reputed Forex broker, the short time frame traders might get decent buying opportunity in this pair near the major support level at 0.70159 with an initial profit target set to 0.72616. However, the daily closing of the price below the major support level at 0.70159 will eventually lead this pair towards the next major support level at 0.69004.

On the upside, we need to break above the critical resistance level at 0.72616 to establish strong bullish momentum. A daily closing of the price above that resistance level will eventually lead this pair towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This level is going to play a crucial role for this pair and any bearish price action confirmation signal will be an excellent opportunity to short this pair in long term basis.

Fundamental factors

Fundamentally the recent outlook of the Aussie economy is not that strong. Moreover, on Tuesday Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the statement was also dovish from the leading officials of RBA. Majority of the professional traders are cautiously waiting in the sideline for unemployment rate data release scheduled on Thursday. If the real data manages to beat the expected data, we will see a strong bullish rally in the AUDUSD pair. On the contrary, a negative data release will significantly push down the AUDUSD pair.

On the other hand, the investors don’t have any clear clue regarding the FED rate hike policy for the year 2019. Unless the FED manages to hike their interest rate, it’s very hard to see a strong surge in the U.S dollar index. So, it’s very obvious the upcoming market movement of the AUDUSD pair is mostly depend on Aussie unemployment data release. Considering the technical and fundamental parameters, the overall bias for the AUDUSD pair is slightly bullish at the present market condition.

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